The strange times of missiles-led ‘peace’

It’s a strange thought that launching attacks on other countries could lead to peace, but that seems to be the logic behind the abrupt escalation in conflict in the Middle East beginning Saturday. And now there’s talk of a ceasefire soon.

Here’s a quick recap.  

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump authorized air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, pushing America into Israel’s war with Tehran.

On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.”

On Monday, Iran launched a retaliatory strike against America, targeting a U.S. military base in Qatar.

And on Monday evening stateside, Trump announced a ceasefire.

Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that will, in effect mark “an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR” — which began when Israel attacked Iran on June 12.

There are signs this isn’t the usual empty rhetoric. Iran gave the U.S. “early notice” of its attack on the military base in Qatar, according to Trump. It was a “retaliation that was expected,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said.

Qatar also received advanced warning from Iran, according to The New York Times, which cited three Iranian officials familiar with the matter. Iran’s national security council said its missile strike “posed no threat whatsoever to our friendly and brotherly nation, Qatar, or its honorable people.”

This, essentially, is “the peace through strength strategy,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.

In other words, there’s a small chance tensions in the Middle East might cool down following a carefully calibrated and symbolic exchange of strikes that projects strength from all parties, while also providing Iran an off-ramp to de-escalate tension.

Judging by the U.S. stock and oil markets — which rose and fell, respectively — investors are indeed hopeful the strategy of missile-led peace would work.

Trump announces an Israel-Iran ceasefire
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” that will begin around midnight Tuesday stateside. However, neither Iran nor Israel has publicly confirmed they have accepted Trump’s ceasefire timeline. Read CNBC’s live coverage of the latest developments on the Israel-Iran war here.

Iran strikes U.S. military base in Qatar
Iran on Monday launched what its armed forces called a “powerful and destructive missile strike on the United States’ Al-Udeid military base in Qatar.” The Al-Udeid Air Base is the largest American military installation in the Middle East, with around 10,000 service members. Qatar’s Defense Ministry said its air defense had intercepted the missile attack on Al-Udeid, and that there were no reported deaths or injuries.

Prices of oil post a huge drop
Oil prices fell sharply Monday after Iran’s strike on Qatar had no reported casualties. U.S. crude oil fell 7.22%, to close at $68.51 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent shed 7.18% to $71.48 during U.S. trading. Trump on Monday demanded that “everyone” keep oil prices down or they would play “into the hands of the enemy.” Trump didn’t specify who he was referring to, but he seemed to be addressing U.S. oil producers.

Markets in U.S. rise on de-escalation hopes
U.S. stocks rose Monday as investors seemed hopeful of de-escalation in the Israel-Iran war. The S&P 500 climbed 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.89% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94%. Tesla shares popped 8.2% after the company launched its robotaxis in Austin, Texas, on Sunday— but regulators are looking into reports of robotaxis driving erratically. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.28%.

[PRO] Wall Street’s thoughts on robotaxis
Wall Street closely watched Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Texas over the weekend. Analyst outlooks on the event vary widely. While Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who rode in the robotaxis over the weekend, said it “exceeded our expectations,” Guggenheim’s Ronald Jewsikow called the event “baby steps.” Here’s what analysts think about what the robotaxis mean for Tesla’s stock.

Airlines divert, cancel more Middle East flights after Iran attacks U.S. military base

Airlines diverted more Middle East flights on Monday after Iran’s armed forces said the country launched a missile…