Five things at stake in Trump and Putin’s high-level talks
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump during a meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019.
Mikhail Klimentyev | Kremlin | Sputnik | Reuters
When Russian President Vladimir Putin travels to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday for talks on ending the war in Ukraine, it’ll be one of the most high profile summits of the year, and there’s a lot at stake.
Veteran statesman Putin is likely to be aiming to extract as many concessions and benefits for Russia as he can in return for a ceasefire that’s coveted by Trump.
Close followers of Moscow say Russia is not looking to end the war yet, however, given its advantageous position on the battlefield in Ukraine, where its forces occupy swathes of territory in the south and east.
Trump has played down expectations for the summit, describing them as a listening exercise ahead of potential further talks. Yet he has also threatened “very severe consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire. It’s a warning Trump has proposed before, and yet has resisted pulling the trigger on further sanctions.
Ukraine and its European allies, not invited to the summit, warned Trump this week that Putin is bluffing about wanting peace. Kyiv has even said Russia is preparing for new offensives although Moscow has not commented on that claim.
The talks could nonetheless be a watershed moment for stakeholders in the Ukraine war which has been raging for three and a half years, as well as a catalyst for geopolitical changes.
CNBC takes a look at five major factors at stake in Friday’s talks:
Ceasefire
Trump’s central aim on Friday is to press Putin into a ceasefire but what form this might take, what promises could be made and what “red lines” might have to be crossed — particularly territorial concessions and security guarantees — to reach a deal will be key.
“Ending the Russia-Ukraine war remains one of President Trump’s signature foreign policy goals, and Friday’s Anchorage talks with Putin have raised expectations of a major diplomatic breakthrough,” Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, said Wednesday.
“The purported deal discussion points are broadly similar to what has been previously floated; In return for halting its military offensive, Russia is apparently seeking to retain Crimea and the entire eastern Donbas region of Ukraine as well as secure a definitive end to Kyiv’s NATO ambitions” she said, in emailed comments.
Ukraine’s territorial integrity
Ukraine and Europe have vehemently pushed back against the “maximalist” territorial concessions that Russia could seek in return for acquiescing to a ceasefire deal.
Trump has sewn confusion and concern by vacillating over the thorny issue in the last week, talking about potential “land swapping” by Ukraine while also pledging to get as much territory back for it as possible.
Ukraine and European leaders on Wednesday urged Trump not to agree to any demands from Putin regarding peace for land, following an emergency virtual summit.
In this aerial view, the ruins of destroyed buildings are seen in the city of Chasiv Yar at dawn on July 24, 2025 in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.
Libkos | Getty Images News | Getty Images
For his part, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s territorial integrity is enshrined in its constitution. Any changes to this would have to be approved by a referendum, which would have to be authorized by the Ukrainian parliament, making the process a potentially fraught one.
There is another option: that Ukraine accepts de facto Russian control of the four regions it broadly occupies, rather than a de jure (legal and official) recognition. But again, how a “just and lasting” peace could then be maintained in Ukraine, and who would police it, would likely be a bone of contention.
Europe’s security
The fate of Ukraine’s territorial integrity doesn’t just affect Ukraine but the rest of Europe, regional leaders say. They argue that giving Putin a slice of its neighbor’s territory effectively redraws the borders of Europe.
Ukraine aspires to membership of the European Union (as sell as NATO, although this is seen as an ambition too far) and both Kyiv and the EU argue that if Russia is given a slice of Ukrainian territory, he will regroup his forces and use the territory as a launchpad for a future wholesale invasion of Ukraine. That could mean Europe has war at its border.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, right, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, depart a news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, May 9, 2023.
Andrew Kravchenko | Bloomberg | Getty Images
EU leaders want to be involved in any ceasefire deal and have offered to oversee keeping the peace. Russia has…
Read More: Five things at stake in Trump and Putin’s high-level talks