Space IPOs are rearing their heads again

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It’s a brave person who calls a market closed or open, particularly for listings — you’ll forgive me if I’m not the one to make that plunge. But the gentle trickle of space IPOs since the start of the year, after a dearth of listings in recent years, isn’t going unnoticed.

Trive Capital-backed Karman Holdings, maker of defense and space systems, went public back in February with a valuation of nearly $4 billion as shares soared during their debut. Voyager Technologies clinched a $3.8 billion valuation two months ago, as the defense and space company’s stock opened 125% higher on Wednesday at $69.75 apiece, above its $31 offer price.

On Thursday, Northrop Grumman-backed Firefly Aerospace — whose Blue Ghost lander successfully touched down on the Moon earlier this year — surged in its Nasdaq debut under the ticker symbol FLY.

This might seem like a small step for some industries, but it’s a giant leap for traditional offerings for the space sector, where for some time players such as Intuitive Machines, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile listed by way of mergers with special-purpose acquisition companies (SPAC)  — shell firms that pool their IPO proceeds to consolidate with a private company and take it public, bypassing some of the typical regulatory scrutiny. SPAC deals seemed on the decline after an initial 2020-2021 flurry, but are trending once more Stateside. To that end, reusable rocket maker Innovative Rocket Technologies has said it will go public through a $400 million merger with BPGC Acquisition, a SPAC backed by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

The broader IPO landscape has been in flux. EY found that the global listings market “demonstrated resilience” in first-half 2025, with China now accounting for one-third of global IPO proceeds, while the U.S. led the pack with 109 IPOs and its strongest January-June performance since the peaks of 2021.

But recent geopolitical volatility triggered by the conflict in the Middle East and by Washington’s protectionist trade policies have cast a shadow over global appetite for dealmaking and going public, bankers have mentioned anecdotally. For its part, U.S. space research and tech-oriented M&A picked up to four deals totalling $280 million in the second quarter, according to Dealogic data shared with CNBC.

“A global IPO market rebound hinges on more cooperative trade frameworks, accommodative monetary policy, controlled inflation and geopolitical de-escalation,” EY noted. “Companies aligned with national priorities and innovation, and those able to present a credible equity story with realistic valuations and flexible timing, are likely to succeed in navigating this complex environment.” 

Space companies, by definition, tick at least some of those boxes.

Lukas Muehlbauer, research analyst at IPOX, qualified this is “definitely a good time for Space IPOs,” with initiatives like the U.S.’ push for the Golden Dome missile interception system fueling high valuations.

“American space companies are well-insulated from tariffs on the revenue side, especially when predictable income streams are provided by U.S. Government contracts – a common feature for defense-adjacent firms,” he told CNBC by email. “Still, most firms in the sector are dependent on foreign-made satellite components, creating a vulnerability to cost increases and deployment delays caused by trade disputes.” 

He nevertheless warned that the “intensifying” competition in the private launch market — where companies are looking to reduce costs, particularly by deploying reusable tech and infrastructure — could create “downward pressure on costs.”

“This will be a key factor in lowering the sector’s high entry barriers, making a new generation of space-based business models commercially feasible,” Muehlbauer noted.

The timing is also ripe, with space ventures generating a fair bit of hype over their growth potential. Last month, a report from Seraphim Space found investment in space startups soared to $3.1 billion over the April-June period, up sharply from $2.1 billion over the January-March stretch. 

“Investors understand the risks in this sector, but they also understand the scale of what is being built. These companies are not being valued on near-term cash flow, but on their ability to deliver long-term strategic infrastructure,” Cristiano Dalla Bona, who heads North America ECM analysis at Mergermarket, said in emailed…