Prediction markets for NFL already a $200M business for Robinhood: Piper Sandler

Prediction markets are fueling Robinhood’s growth, with sports betting already bringing in roughly $200 million to the trading platform, according to Piper Sandler. The investment firm, which has an overweight rating on Robinhood, raised its price target on the exchange to $140 from $120, implying upside of 12%. “Prediction markets (aka event contracts) present significant upside opportunity for Robinhood,” analyst Patrick Moley said in the note to clients. Trading platform Kalshi, which embeds some of its event contracts into Robinhood, is on track to notch record monthly betting volumes in September, partially due to its rollout of NFL and NCAA-related markets — a boon for Robinhood and its shareholders, the analyst added. Kalshi and Robinhood have a 50-50 revenue share agreement that includes a 2-cent fee per contract, according to Piper Sandler. HOOD YTD mountain HOOD YTD There is some uncertainty over whether Kalshi can continue offering athletics-related contracts in some U.S. markets, which could pose a threat to the exchange’s partnership with Robinhood. Over the past several months, a few state regulators have ordered Kalshi to stop accepting wagers on sports events, alleging that the company’s activities do not comply with local gaming laws. However, Kalshi has lawyered up to challenge the allegations that it must observe local regulations. Piper Sandler’s stance on the stock is in line with others covering Robinhood. Two-thirds of the 23 analysts who cover the trading platform rate the stock a buy or strong buy, LSEG data shows. Robinhood edged up 0.43% in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock has jumped more than 200% year to date. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )