Goldman sees gold upside to $4,000 on loss of Fed independence

Gold prices could crack $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 in response to President Donald Trump’s threats against the independence of the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs analysts told clients this week. Damage to the Fed’s independence would result in higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, the Goldman analysts said. This instability would encourage flight into the safe-haven asset gold, according to the bank. “Should private investors diversify more heavily into gold, we see potential upside to gold prices to well above our $4,000 mid-2026 baseline,” Goldman analysts led by Samantha Dart said in a Wednesday note. “As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation.” JPMorgan has found evidence that the market is already worried about the central bank’s independence. Gold futures, for example, are showing signs of a “Fed inflation trade,” JPMorgan analysts told clients in a Wednesday note. Gold futures gained 4.9% from Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran on Aug. 7 to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board through Wednesday’s close, according to JPMorgan. Miran is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Gold has gained 5.8% since Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Aug. 22 through Tuesday, according to JPMorgan. The president has made clear that he wants to consolidate a majority on the Fed board so he can lower interest rates. There has been a sharp increase in long gold futures positions since Trump said he fired Cook, according to JPMorgan.