Analysts Say Bitcoin Facing ‘Worst Q4 Ever,’ Confirms Bear Market
Key Takeaways
- More than 41,000 BTC and 228,000 ETH options expired on Friday.
- Analysts from Greeks.Live warned against leveraged trading.
- The platform confirmed that the crypto market has “entered a bear market.”
Crypto markets slumped on Friday as a wave of expiring derivatives and rising volatility deepened concerns over what analysts are describing as Bitcoin’s “worst fourth quarter on record.”
As BTC fell to its lowest levels since May, analysts claim data from the last three months show confidently that the industry has “entered a bear market.”
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Options Contracts Expire
Data from the options analytics platform Greeks.Live showed that 41,000 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of $3.95 billion, expired.
At the same time, 228,000 Ether options, valued at $730 million, expired with a put-call ratio of 0.59 and a maximum-pain point near $3,475.
The platform also noted a sharp rise in volatility expectations. Bitcoin’s near-term implied volatility (IV) approached 50%, while Ethereum’s IV for major expiries climbed above 70%, with short-term IV nearing 100%.
Bitcoin Falling, Bear Market Confirmed
In a statement on X, Greeks.Live warned that leveraged trading was “inadvisable” due to “macroeconomic uncertainties and other factors.”
The platform said Q4 is shaping up to be one of the most difficult periods for crypto investors in years.
“In short, Q4 of this year can be described as the worst on record,” Greeks.Live wrote.
Adding: “Given the macroeconomic uncertainties and other factors, market sentiment is highly divided, making leveraged trading inadvisable.”
In a follow-up post , the platform said that by looking at data over the past three months, they can conclude “we are currently in a bear market.”
“While there was considerable divergence earlier this week, put options have now gained the upper hand following BTC’s breach below the $100,000 mark today,” it added.
Bitcoin Price Collapse
The comments come as Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on Friday, briefly dropping to $96,712, its lowest level since May.
According to CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri, Bitcoin could fall to a support zone between $57,600 and $70,600 if the downtrend continues.
Tahiri said Bitcoin’s drop is leading the broader crypto market lower and could trigger additional losses.
He noted that the total market capitalization could fall to $2.92 trillion or even $2.50 trillion if the weakness persists.
“The breakdowns, divergences, and failed support levels indicate that the current cycle has likely peaked,” he wrote.
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